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Day August 6, 2012

2016 IS A TICKING TIME BOMB FOR ALL MOVEMENTISTS, UNLESS ……………….”


Friends

As we continue to follow the political nightmare of our country, there are some facts I need to raise tonight that are seriously on our door and we have every right to discuss them. Being in politics as Movementists have been, does not mean that you are stupid, thus there are major serious questions being asked in Kampala among the hierarchy of the Movement that are very disturbing that I need to raise tonight. And the question mainly is this, so we have been in power this long, we have enjoyed life this long, but what is the end of this game? There are many in the movement that wonder how this thing gets closed up. Now as they are asking each other this question, there are starting points many agree on for example, Yoweri Museveni has to go that is no longer a question it is only when and how, Muhoozi Kayinerugaba has to go, that also is no longer a question, Ssabassajja Mutebi goes half hour even before Museveni and Muhoozi leave, but after all those go then what? Do we really need some guy to show up in Entebbe State House and line all of us into a firing squad let alone handing all of us over to the international court? But age is on top of us, so that is something we need to consider and very widely for it closes the door on us by every single night that falls on Kampala. So the following officers have for a while been questioning where they are heading, Peco Kutesa, Kyaligonza, Elly Tumwiine, Tumukunde, Jorum Mugume, Dr. Kiiza Besigye, Kamwesigye, Otafiire, now Tinyefunza is quite but very aware of the unsure future, Salim Saleh also aware but talks only in the night now that he is the only link between the old timers and Museveni. A man like Mugisha Muntu later learned it the hard way that he had been turned on against many of his comrades and later dumped. Baganda Generals cannot comment loudly but count Kasirye Gwanga among those pushing for a very serious discussion of how to end this Movement game. The only bold Muganda was Lt. Col Sserwanga Lwanga but as you all know how he passed on when he could have been saved medically, Sserwanga was just simply written off. But you have civilians like Rwakakoko, Ruzindana, Tumwesigye, Kweronda Ruhemba, Elly Karuhanga and many others all inclusive see a pending disaster, but simply cannot utter a word for fear of the BOSS! But the very clear understanding within the Movement is that the Movement game has to end, and if it is to end it has to end before the 2016 election. But note also that all this is amidst their confusion by Amama Mbabazi that many from within would just love to castrate.

Now as all these discussions are going on, Museveni also has another card he is throwing on the pallet. You see the push of an end of The Movement game is also being discussed within his trust worthy’s, and he is being asked to find a solution or a way to end this thing before the 2016 election, and one of the cards he has thrown on the pallet is the reconciliation stance, thus the visiting of Mama Miria and Muzeeyi Byanyima. When you look carefully at Paul Kagame’s problem, it is mainly a failure to build a bridge between Hutus and Tutsis, a failure to settle an old history. Museveni believes that if he can bridge the old enemies he might find a solution for 2016. What Museveni fails to realize is that the situation in Uganda is actually very different from Rwanda, for example Maama Miria has moved on, but Byanyima is retired and sincerely useless. But Museveni also has a problem of Mbabazi who has decided to be a Museveni’s snag on Dr Kiiza Besigye, and Mbabazi has also an issue with Muhoozi Kayinerugaba being a successor, because Mbabazi within himself, very strongly believes that he should be the next Uganda’s president, and to him there is no debate on the obvious. Now Mbabazi has worked on being a president that is granted, but the problem with his plan is that he planted his men all over the place, and if your men are all over the place you simply cannot pull a government down. Which sends The Movement camp for some reason back into the Luwero days when they were all together, for trust me if Museveni leaves office, the individuals that will hunt down Mbabazi will hunt down Tinyefunza, will hunt down Mugisha Muntonyera, but will hunt down Dr Kiiza Besigye as will hunt down Ssabassajja Mutebi, so somehow finding a solution before 2016 election can collect all of the Luwero war characters together, for they have to save themselves before the coming election, better yet before Museveni gets recalled by his maker. At this point you need to pay particular attention to COO’s articles on Museveni’s reconciliation stances, for they are a hunt of a solution to this problem by the Museveni inner circles.

But among the problems these fellows have is who exactly can replace Museveni but guarantee our safety with our families and investments within Uganda? When you raise the name of Dr Kiiza Besigye, they all stand back and we still fail to understand why but we know that Besigye has a great deal of misunderstanding with some major Movement hierarchy. This misunderstanding appears to have started from Kasese when The Movement was still being defined in terms of policies. It had an interim administration headed by Haji Kigongo, now you see he had to be a planted Muganda and on a purpose, it was the time then when Ssabassajja Mutebi was also entered into the Movement fray to solidify The Movement and the Buganda Kingdom!! The situation reached a climax when Dr Kiiza Besigye wrote the infamous latter http://ugandansatheart.org/2012/08/06/besigyes-1999-document-that-landed-him-in-hot-soup/. By the way many top NRM officers attended meetings between 1992 and 1994 at a one senior official’s residence in Nakasero in which all had agreed to do “something” about the direction of The Movement. Very surprisingly a word leaked to Museveni and when he called one by one, they all denied those meetings, thus leaving Dr. Kiiza Besigye to suck it up alone. Apparently Tinyefunza is one guy that was more than willing to get rid of Museveni then! The leader of that over throw was not even Dr Kiiza Besigye, as it was believed by the Museveni insiders. Besigye just became an innocent accidental victim when everyone else denied everything. Dr Kiiza Besigye simply became a scape Goat.

Having stated that on Dr Kiiza Besigye, morals dictates that we must mention also that as he was being prepared to be court marshaled, Dr Kiiza Besigye’ s colleagues in Bombo hid the orders from State House because he was simply denied proper discharged from the army, a tactic Museveni uses to keep his soldiers on a leash. Besigye then mistakenly went on to announce himself as a presidential material to save himself from the Kangaroo protection. Now you need to realize that at this particular time, even Tinyefunza was his great supporter to a point of being his best man, a decision Tinyefunza did at a time to show total contempt to Museveni. Now this is just to show you how Dr Kiiza Besigye accidently jumped to prominence. As critical thinkers, we have a feeling that the place the Besigye’ s used for meetings was of Kigongo’ s house. I will add as well that Njuba and Suleiman Kiggundu were very involved for it was those two that mainly and publicly stuck to Dr Kiiza Besigye. I have also to note here that Baganda must read what Dr Kashambuzi is writing very closely, for he is setting up Buganda into the very same trouble of going against the Tutsi. Dr. Kashambuzi is telling Baganda what they want to hear only that he does not tell them that the Tutsis have power and money, and rallying against them at this material time can actually prove fatal. And I will leave that point at that glitch as much as I need to expand it. Which brings us to the death of Brigadier Mayombo, you see contrally to what many state, Mayombo may have been bumped by the Rwandese {And with time I will expand on that} . And note that I am using a term “may have been” It is alleged that against Tinyefuza and Otafire’s advice, Brigadier Mayombo who had been humiliated by the Rwandan army in The DRC war, simply got pissed up with Museveni and wanted to send the country into an open war to get even with Museveni. Now to understand where I am coming from, you need to remember that he was captured with Otafire and whipped as a kid, Mayombo never forgave them for that and he swore that even if it meant throwing Museveni out of power he will go after the Rwandese army. What is interesting is that the Rwandese apparently told Museveni why Mayombo was bumped off and it for some reason shocked him. It is important to note too that it is alleged too that Muhoozi was also directly involved into the bumping of Mayombo which pushed Museveni into saying that Muhoozi will lead Uganda only after he is in a casket. It is important too to recognize that Mayombo openly despised Muhoozi whenever he drunk a lot of his favorite –Ugandan Waragi saying that Muhoozi will lead Uganda only after he is also in a casket. It will be a miracle if the commission’s findings on his death will ever be realized.

But as this end of game still worry many in Kampala, there is an issue of the armed forces. Yes we may have one UPDF but in actual fact we have three armies in one. The Veterans “That includes the Katumba Wamalas” even then they include the famous Rukungiri Generals who are treated rather differently that the rest of the veterans. It is many of those, Rukungiri Generals, who now talk loudly in private about the scare future. It is these Generals that see a carnage in Uganda’s face. But let us also remember that these Generals are not only old, useless but typically scared of their life if the government collapses like today. Or may God forbid, God decides to instruct Museveni to meet his creator. Then we have the main body UPDF, the group that should have been The Mayombo’ s group. These are just regular soldiers officers and men who are as divided as the rest of the country. Among those came the Konyi boys whom got integrated, and are really the best fighters UPDF has now for they were trained and have fought wars. But this is not a coherent force and it is very divided as the country. They don’t have the capacity to choose what is best for them for many of their officers in command are tagged by their own escorts who have a direct line to state house. And much of it is not even a coherent force and many were dispersed to different units to be closely monitored. So you have with in that force a huge section that is hunting down its own tail that it will never catch. Then you have the most sophisticated army that solely belongs to Muhoozi, it is very different, separate training structure, separate command, separate salary class, extremely well and better armed. But I must point out here that this force is surprisingly very diverse in nature, it is the only force that was built from almost every tribe in Uganda. That within its self, makes it very hard to mingle or chose sides as many are in the age group 25 to 36, the officers are all graduates very polished and intelligent and yes well paid. Of course the tribal element and favoritism cannot be ruled out, but building this force to one belief that is anti Museveni, can develop to be very cumbersome.

Which brings me to the Buganda issue, confused as the Movement is above, Mengo and Buganda has a crisis in its self that does not make the issues any easier. There is a group of Baganda in Mengo that believe that Buganda and the Kingdom is as a human being to breathing, to those it was wrong for Ssabassajja to join the Movement altogether. They believe that a natural thing can never be instructed to be. They also feared that if the Kingdom is reinstated by a politician it so can be cut out again by a politician but they had an issue of making Luwero a battle ground. So these have taken this stand from early 80’s. But on reinstating the Kingdom, they hate the closeness Ssabassajja Mutebi has to the Movement, and they so rightly argue that how can you separate the Kingdom from a corrupt government when it gets cheques from it. But Ssabassajja himself has also come out as a man that takes very strange positions, for example, although the entire history of Buganda Kingdom is Anglican, they fail to understand how it became a tool of the Catholics thus Democratic Party. To that camp, the sooner Ssabassajja leaves the kingdom the better. In fact that camp also believes that at the rate Ssabassajja has opened up the Kingdom to Museveni, it is better saved by becoming shut down altogether. Ssabassajja has responded by making sure that he makes his future assured by investing in United Kingdom very extensively, again in preparation for the departure of Museveni or the Movement altogether.

Friends the situation in our country is at a pinnacle point for every one that camped into Luwero to create the Movement wants a solution to how the game ends, and all of them including Museveni, Besigye, Ssabassajja and the likes. It is not an easy situation, neither is the solution, but time is a factor to worry about as the door of The Movement is closing by either a government falling let alone Museveni getting recalled by his dear maker. To those as Matek Gook and OJ that have been following Uganda politics closely, stay awake for this situation is only getting better by the day if not minute. Now remember too that there is a huge pressure on Paul Kagame to leave office, if Kagame goes, this entire debate is going to change and very fast, for many of the decision makers on Uganda issues are directly or indirectly affected by what happens to Paul Kagame.

EDWARD MULINDWA
TORONTO

Besigye’s 1999 document that landed him in hot soup


I have taken keen interest and participated in the political activities on the Ugandan scene since the late 1970s. This was during a period of intense jostling to topple and later succeed the Idi Amin regime. I am, therefore, fully aware of the euphoria, excitement and hope with which Ugandans received the Uganda National Liberation Front/Army (UNLF/A). Ugandans supported the UNLF’s stated approach of “politics of consensus” through the common front. It was hoped that the new approach to politics would be maintained and Uganda rebuilt from the ruins left by the Amin regime. Unfortunately, instead of nurturing the structures, and regulations which bound the front together, we witnessed a primitive power struggle that resulted in ripping the front apart to the chagrin of the population.

Some of us young people were immediately thrown into serious confusion. We had not belonged to any political party before, and we did not approve of the record and character of the existing parties – UPC and DP. Spontaneously, many people started talking of belonging to a Third Force. This force represented those persons who wished to make a fresh start at political organization, with unity and consensus politics as the center pin. With a few months left to the 1980 elections, the Third Force crystallized into a new political organization– the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM). The population, to a large extent, expressed their appreciation of the ideas and opportunity presented by the young organization, but was pessimistic regarding its electoral success.

Pessimism was justified, because the new organization simply had no time and resources to organize effectively nationally; and UPC was already positioning itself very loudly and arrogantly to rig the elections and seemed to have what was essential for them to do so successfully. After the sham 1980 elections, when Paulo Muwanga, a leader of UPC (and chairman of the Military Commission) took over all powers of the Electoral Commission and declared his own election results, there was widespread despondency and tension. While the “minority” DP Members of Parliament took up the opposition benches in Parliament, the rank and file of the party rapidly united behind the new forces of resistance to struggle against the dictatorial rule. The Popular Resistance Army (PRA and later, NRA) led by Yoweri Museveni which started with about 30 fighters, was overwhelmed by people seeking to join its ranks. The NRM was born as a political organization in June 1981.

It was created by a protocol that effected the merger of Uganda Freedom Fighters UFF (led by the late Prof Y.K. Lule and Museveni’s PRA). The armed wing of the organization became the National Resistance Army (NRA). The NRM political program was initially based on seven points which were later increased to become the well-known Ten-Point Program. The basic consideration in drawing up the program was that it should form the basis of a broad national political and social force. A national coalition was considered to be of critical importance in establishing peace, security, and optimally moving the country forward. The political program was, therefore, referred to as a minimum program around which different political forces in Uganda could unite for rehabilitation and recovery of the country.

To achieve unity, it was envisaged that the minimum program would be implemented by a broad-based government. After the bush war, discussions were undertaken with the various political forces to establish a broad-based government that would reflect a national consensus. The NRM set up a committee led by Eriya Kategeya (then chairman of the NRM Political and Diplomatic committee) for the purpose of engaging the various groups in these discussions. This exercise was, however, never taken to its logical conclusion. It would appear that once the leaders of the political parties were given “good” posts in the NRM government, their enthusiasm for the discussions waned, and the process eventually fizzled out. In spite of the lack of a proper modus operandi, the initial NRM government (executive branch) was impressively broad-based. Consensus politics conducted through elections based on individual merit and formation of broad-based government became the hallmark of the NRM.

Broad base undermined

However, the popular concept of the broad-based government, which had also received support of most political groups, was progressively undermined. It ought to be remembered that due to the support and cooperation of other political groups, no legal restrictions were imposed –on political parties until August 11, 1992 when the NRC made a resolution on political party activities in the interim period. In my opinion, there were three factors responsible for undermining and later destroying the NRM cardinal principle of broad-based, especially in appointment to the Executive: The NRM had set itself to serve for a period of four years as an interim government, then return power to the people. However, it was not very clear how this would happen at the end of the four years.

Some politicians in NRM government who came from other political parties set out to use their advantaged positions to, on the one hand, undermine the NRM and on the other, strengthen themselves in preparation for the post-NRM political period. Consequently, they fell out with the NRM leadership, and a number of them were arrested and charged with treason. Historical NRM politicians who thought that they were not “appropriately” placed in government, blamed this on the large number of the “non-NRM” people in high up places, and set out to campaign against the situation. They created a distinction between government leaders as “NRM”, and “broad-based”. If you were referred to as “broad-based”, it was another way of saying that you were undeserving of your post, or that you were possibly an enemy agent (“5th Columnist”).

After some years of NRM rule, some in the leadership began to feel that there was sufficient grassroots support for the NRM, such that one could “off-load” the “broad–based” elements in government at no political cost. These factors were at the center of an unprincipled power-struggle which was mostly covert and hence could not be resolved democratically. It continued to play itself out outside the formal Movement organs, with the results of weakening and eventually losing the concept of consensus politics and broad-based. By the time of the Constituent Assembly elections were held in 1994, the NRM’s all encompassing, and broad-based concept remained only in name. For instance, while the CA electoral law clearly stated that candidates would stand on “individual merit”, the NRM Secretariat set up special commercial committees at districts whose task was to recommend “NRM candidates” for support. Not only did the logistical and administrative machinery of NRM move against the candidates supporting or suspected to be favoring early return to multi-party politics, it even moved against liberal candidates advocating for the initial NRM broad–based concept.

That is why many people were surprised and confused when some senior NRM leaders declared that “we have won!” after the CA results were announced. Who had won? It was clear that there were two systems; one described in the law, and another being practiced. Moreover, the conduct of the CA, again exhibited the contradictions between the principles of NRM (and the law), and the practice. I was quite alarmed when I read a document titled ‘Minutes Of A Meeting Between H.E The President with CA Group Held On 25.8.94 At Kisozi.’ The copy had been availed to me by my colleague Lt Col Serwanga Lwanga (RIP) who attended the meeting. Present at the meeting were recorded as: H.E. the President (Chair), Eriya Kategaya, Bidandi Ssali, Steven Chebrot, Agard Didi, George Kanyeihamba. Miria Matembe, Mathias Ngobi, Mr. Sebalu, Lt Noble Mayombo, Jotham Tumwesigye, Aziz Kasujja, Beatrice Lagada, Faith Mwonda and Margaret Zziwa. The introduction of the meeting reads in part as follows: The National Political Commissar introduced this committee as a Constituent Assembly Movement Group which wants to agree on a common position.

The arbitrary hand-picked group went ahead to take positions on major areas of the draft constitution, which we members of CA, (considered as “NRM supporters”), were supposed to support in the CA. It is interesting to note that among the 16 hand-picked members of the group, only six were directly elected to represent constituencies in the CA. The others were presidential nominees and representatives of special interest groups. One member was not even a CA delegate. We strongly resisted this approach, and after intense pushing and shoving, this group was replaced by the “Movement caucus” under the chairmanship of the National Political Commissar, Kategaya.

Changing movement

The Movement caucus acted very much like an organ of a ruling party. All ministers (except Paul Ssemogerere who later resigned from government) were members. The hand-picked group, and the Movement caucus after it, both undermined the principles of the Movement and the law. The Constituent Assembly was negatively influenced by executive appointments. In the middle of the CA proceedings, a cabinet reshuffle saw Speciosa Kazibwe elevated to the vice presidency, Kintu Musoke to premier and several other delegates appointed to ministerial posts. Many others were appointed to be directors of parastatal companies. It is my opinion that after these actions, some CA delegates took positions believed to attract the favorable attention of the executive. Most CA delegates also intended to participate in the elections that would immediately follow the CA.

This had two negative effects:

Being aware of the previous role of the NRM Secretariat in elections, some CA delegates would be compromised to act in such a way as to win the support of the secretariat in the forthcoming elections. Some CA delegates saw themselves as the first beneficiaries of the government structure and arrangements that were being constitutionalized. So, they took positions which would Favour them, and not the common good. As a result, the CA progressively became polarized, and its objectivity was diminished, especially when dealing with political systems. For example, at the commencement of the CA, every delegate made an opening statement highlighting major views on the draft constitution. Analysis of these statements shows that few delegates supported the immediate introduction of multiparty system while the majority supported the continuation of the “Movement system” for a transitional period of varying length.

The positions expressed were very much in line with the views gathered by the Constitutional Commission. The commission noted in its report (paragraph 0.46) that a consensus on the issue could not be attained. This was demonstrated by the statistical analysis of views gathered from RC 1 to RC V, plus individual and group memoranda. It will be seen that nationally, at RC 1, “Movement” supporters were 63.2% and this percentage decreased progressively as they went to higher RCs until RCV (District Councils) where Movement supporters were only 38.9% and multiparty supporters were 52.8%. Among the individual memoranda, 43.9% supported a multiparty system, while 42.1% supported Movement. Among the group memoranda, 45.1% supported multiparty, while 41.4% supported Movement. It is important to note that these views were gathered at a time when there was no impending election, and therefore, no campaigning.

Accordingly, the Constitutional Commission proposed the following, as the only limitation on political party activities (in Article 98 of Draft Constitution): “For the period when the Movement is in existence, political parties shall not endorse, sponsor, offer platform to or in any way campaign for or against any candidate for public office.” The CA under the influences outlined earlier ended up with restrictions contained in the highly contentious article 269 of the Constitution. The character of the Movement gradually changed, and the process of change was not determined democratically. Instead, it was continuously manipulated. Established Movement organs were continuously undetermined, and others completely ignored. For example, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of NRM was the organ supposed to be coordinating change in the NRM, yet NEC had not met for more than three years prior to the promulgation of the 1995 constitution – in spite of a requirement for it to meet at last once every three months. Instead, covert and arbitrarily constituted groups came in, like district election committees, special CA groups, Movement political High Command, Movement caucus, Maj Kakooza Mutale’s group, etc. The Movement created by the CA and completed by Parliament (through the Movement Act 1997) was different from the one of 1986-1995.

The Movement Act 1997 created a political organization with structures outside the governmental structure. For the first time, the Movement was a political organization distinct from government, the only remaining link being that it was funded by the government. Unfortunately, instead of describing the Movement as a political organization, the CA chose to call it a political system – distinct from “Multiparty Political System”, and other systems that may be thought of later. This was, in my opinion, a grave error. We even ignored advice given to us through a letter by President Yoweri Museveni (chairman NRM and Commander in Chief NRA) to the CA-NRM caucus delegates, dated June 21, 1995. In the letter, the chairman says, “the NRM is not a state but a political organization that tries to welcome all Ugandans. It therefore cannot coerce all Ugandans to be loyal to it. Loyalty to NRM is voluntary.”

The reality of the Movement today is that it is a political organization in much the same way as any political party is. Having no membership cards does not make it less so. In fact, in the letter referred to above, President Museveni further explains: “then some people may ask the question. If NRM could be already to compete for political office with opposing political forces in future, why not do it now? Do not support doing it now because it is not in the best [interest] of governance and fortunately now the people still agree with us. It is only when the majority of the people change that we have to adjust our position. It would be something imposed on us by circumstances.” So the NRM/Movement system is a convenient and, for the time, popular means to political power.

Manipulation

The characteristics which made the NRM government popular, such as the broad- based strategy, principle of individual merit, and the 10-Point Program have been seriously eroded. This is evidenced by the bitter antagonism and animosity which exists between Movement supporters in many parts of the country, e.g. Kabale, Ntungamo, Kasese and Iganga. After more than 13 years of NRM rule, armed rebellion rages on in northern Uganda, and has also become entrenched in the western part of the country. All in all, when I reflect on the Movement philosophy and governance, I can conclude that the Movement has been manipulated by those seeking to gain or retain political power, in the same way that political parties in Uganda were manipulated. Evidently, the results of this manipulation are also the same, to wit: Factionalism, loss of faith in the system, corruption, insecurity and abuse of human rights, economic distortions and eventually decline. So, whether it’s political parties or Movement, the real problem is dishonest, opportunistic and undemocratic leadership operating in a weak institutional framework and a weak civil society which cannot control them.

I have shown that over the years the “Movement System” has been defined in the law in a certain way, but the leaders have chosen to act in a difficult way. This is dishonest and opportunistic leadership. I have also shown how changes have been made to the Movement agenda, and other important decisions have been made outside the Movement structures. This too is undemocratic leadership. In my opinion, the way forward in developing a stable political situation is to do the following: Urgently revisit the legal framework with a view to making an equitable law and regulation for all political organizations. The Movement should be treated as a political organization. Implementing this would need amendments to the Constitution, including amendment of articles 69 and 74. This requires the approval of the people through a referendum and the forthcoming referendum could be used for this purpose. In any case, laws are a reflection of the political will, so if there is political will to correct a situation, finding a way is easy.

The primary guarantor of democracy, human rights and the rule of law must be the civil society. Its capacity should, therefore, be quickly developed. Focus on a program that could quickly raise the standards of living of our people to a decent level. This is an essential antecedent for our society to build a viable democracy. Of course, the approach to raising the standards of living is highly debatable. I have personal views that I hope to share with the public at another time. I pray to the almighty God to guide us so that we do not tumble again.

KIZZA BESIGYE

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